Kheyti logoImpact Dashboard

10 Years of Transforming Smallholder Farming • Greenhouse-in-a-Box

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Farmer Growth Trajectory
Cumulative farmers
2025 Strategic Shift

Slower 2025 growth reflects a strategic move from direct farmer sales to government partnerships, which have longer conversion timelines. Climate events in some operating states also contributed.

Target Progress
Actual
Target
GH Income Increase Over $784 Baseline
Model Works for All Farmers

Even bottom quartile farmers earn more with a greenhouse. This demonstrates the model's effectiveness for struggling farmers, not just top performers.

Geographic Presence
State:
Year:
Income Distribution by Farmer Archetype
Key Insight

2024 peak ($287) reflects favorable monsoon conditions and strong vegetable prices. 2025 decline partly reflects climate events in some operating states and a strategic shift toward government partnerships.

GH Farm Income Distribution
GH Income by Farm Size
Methodology: For farmers with less than 300 days of greenhouse operation in a given year, annual income is projected using a 75% capacity utilization factor to provide a conservative full-year estimate.
Farmer Distribution by State
Farmers by State
Income Distribution by State (Within-State Consistency)
Interpreting State Variance

States like Madhya Pradesh have stronger markets. Bihar and Jharkhand face different market challenges. Within-state consistency demonstrates model reliability in each context.

Retention Curves by Cohort
Key Insight

Retention stabilizes over time—Year 4→5 drop is only 3-8% vs. 17-21% for Year 1→2. Farmers who stay past Year 3 become long-term adopters.

Cohort Retention Table

Each row = cohort start year. Shows % retained from Year 1 baseline.

Note: 2019-2021 cohorts have incomplete early season records due to data collection starting mid-program.

Key Insight

The 2024 cohort's Year 2 drop to 66% (vs. 77-83% for other cohorts) reflects 2025 challenges including climate events in some operating states and the transition to government partnerships.

Farmer Retention by Season Count

Pre-2024 cohorts only (n=1,893) — excludes recent joiners who haven't had time to return

Key Insight

For every 10 farmers who start, 8 return for season 2, 6 reach season 3, and 4 become long-term adopters (4+ seasons)—strong retention that validates the model.

Crop Season Trends Over Time

Note: 2020-2021 data is incomplete due to data collection starting mid-program

Key Insight

Crop seasons completed grew 13x in 3 years (359→4,647 from 2022-2024), demonstrating rapid operational scaling while maintaining farmer engagement.

Multi-Greenhouse Farmer Growth

Farmers who expanded to 2+ greenhouses (cumulative)

Key Insight

51 farmers have expanded to multiple greenhouses — a small but growing segment that demonstrates the model's scalability potential.

Crop Seasons Completed by State
Key Insight

Telangana and Jharkhand lead in crop seasons completed, reflecting Kheyti's early presence and strong farmer engagement in these states.


⚠️
Exploratory Analysis

This retention factor analysis was generated with AI assistance. The correlations shown are statistically significant but the causal interpretations require validation by a qualified researcher. Please validate independently before drawing conclusions or making operational decisions.

Harvest Success & Retention

% of farmers who return for season 2+ by first-season harvest outcome

Strongest Predictor

First-season harvest success is the strongest predictor of retention (3.2x effect). Focus support resources on helping new farmers succeed in their first season.

First-Season Income & Retention

% of farmers who return for season 2+ by income quartile

Modest Income Effect

Higher first-season income has a modest effect on retention (+7pp between top and bottom quartile). Harvest success matters more than income level.

Retention by Acquisition Channel

How farmers were acquired affects long-term engagement

Early Signal

Government-referred farmers show lower retention in early data. However, this channel opened recently and many of these farmers may not yet have had the opportunity to complete additional seasons. It is also possible that repeat season data was not fully captured at the time of the data pull. This is an emerging pattern worth monitoring as the government partnership matures and more data becomes available.

Income by Crop Season Number

Median income per crop season by farmer's nth season

Consistent Returns

Per-season income remains stable across experience levels ($120-154), suggesting the model delivers reliable results from the start rather than requiring a long learning curve.

Quality During Scale: Income Consistency

 

Quality Maintained During 20x Growth

Despite scaling from ~300 to 6,300+ farmers, median income held steady — suggesting training quality, greenhouse standards, and support services kept pace with rapid expansion.

Farmer Acquisition Channels
Channel Strategy

Village outreach has historically driven the majority of adoption. Going forward, Kheyti is moving fully toward a government partnership model, with the government as a partial payer, to address affordability constraints for individual farmers.

Technology Adoption
Sustainable Practices

45% use drip irrigation, 33% use mulching — water-efficient technologies support climate resilience.

Top Crops Grown
Diversified Portfolio

Mixed cropping leads adoption — farmers diversify risk across vegetables, nurseries, and high-value crops.

⚠️
Exploratory Analysis

This climate analysis was generated with AI assistance using publicly available regional data and research. It is intended as inspiration for further investigation—not as conclusive findings. The methodology and interpretations have not been vetted by a qualified researcher. Please validate independently before drawing conclusions.

Monsoon Season Advantage

Income comparison: Monsoon (Jun-Sep) vs Non-Monsoon seasons

Protected Advantage in Monsoon

Open-field vegetable yields typically drop 30-83% during monsoon due to rain damage and disease.1 Research shows protected cultivation yields 25-37% more than traditional methods during monsoon, with income more than doubling.2

Extreme Weather Impact

Greenhouse income during extreme weather events

Correlation, Not Causation

The +40% is driven by crop mix (high-value nursery crops grown pre-monsoon) and state composition—not climate protection. Same-crop analysis shows cucumbers earn 15% less during extreme heat. Research shows heat stress (>38°C) causes up to 80% flower loss in open-field tomatoes.3

Monthly Income & Weather Patterns

Median income by harvest month with precipitation overlay

Monsoon Timing

Peak income (June) aligns with pre-monsoon harvests when greenhouse protection matters most. Monsoon months (Jul-Sep) show sustained income as protected crops thrive while open-field yields suffer.

State Climate Profiles

Income vs climate conditions by state (bubble size = crop seasons)

Market Matters More Than Climate

Income correlates with market access, not rainfall. The model works across diverse climate zones from semi-arid Rajasthan to tropical Odisha.

Research Citations:

1 India Data Portal, "Crop-wise Area, Production, Yield" (2015-2018). Kharif vs Rabi yields for potato (-56%), dry chillies (-83%) in Kheyti operating states. ckandev.indiadataportal.com

2 "Enhancing Tomato Productivity in Assam, India: A Comparative Study of Rain Shelter and Traditional Cultivation Methods" (2019-2021). Rain shelter: 30,371-31,657 kg/ha vs traditional: 22,290-24,098 kg/ha. Net income ₹597K-621K vs ₹270K-289K. Research Square

3 "An overview of heat stress in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.)" Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences (2021). Heat stress at >38°C causes 80% flower loss; day temps above 25°C significantly decrease fruit numbers and weight. PMC/NCBI

Open Datasets Used:

Weather data: Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. Daily temperature, precipitation, and extreme heat days (2022-2025) for 7 Indian states. Free, open-source weather data. open-meteo.com

Crop yield data: India Data Portal, Ministry of Agriculture. District-level area, production, and yield statistics (1997-2021) for major crops across all Indian states. ckandev.indiadataportal.com

Kheyti farmer data: Internal operational data provided by Kheyti. Crop season records (2020-2026), farmer demographics, and income metrics. kheyti.com